Thinking in bets for innovators: Building ideas in a lean, smart and flexible way
By Hannah SageIn a start-up or scale-up, moving fast on the right idea isn’t just about gaining a competitive advantage, it’s about survival. Learning how to select and develop the right idea is paramount.
So, what can be learnt from a start-up mindset and how can thinking in bets for innovators build stronger ideas in a lean, smart and flexible way?
In my last role as a Product Manager for a fintech scale-up, I learnt firsthand that developing the strongest ideas for your product requires a constant balancing act between users, customers and the business. And, whether you’re looking to launch the next technical innovation, revise your packaging or release a new physical product, there’s one thing in common - it all starts with an idea.
The challenge is taking those fledgling ideas and finding the right one to move forward at the right time with the resources and constraints available.
Thinking in bets for innovators
Annie Duke coined the notion of ‘thinking in bets’ in her titular 2018 book where she talks about embracing uncertainty to make better decisions. Professional poker players get comfortable with this. To be the best, they learn that good decisions don’t always mean great results, and bad decisions don’t always end badly.
Put simply, bets are a pledge or forfeit risked on some uncertain outcome. They’re a wager, the best guess at an outcome you hope will come true. They’re speculative by nature and often involve an element of chance.
While you might not want the launch of a new product or feature to feel like a risky endeavour, it’s impossible to know with absolute certainty that you’re sitting on the next big thing. No matter how robust your process is, there’s one thing for certain - people are unpredictable. And, if your product or feature involves users, its success may also be unpredictable.
So, by embracing the element of chance and moving away from the need for absolute certainty, you can learn to evaluate the strength of an idea or decision on both what you know, and what you don’t. This can open your mind to possibilities, resulting in more calm, less reactive decision-making.
For me, it wasn’t just about thinking in bets but the philosophy could be applied to our whole way of working. Here are a few big takeaways.
Spread your bets
Framing ideas as bets immediately shifts your thinking from absolute and rigid to something more fluid. It allows you to take a problem or challenge and first understand it deeply, then make moves towards its resolution, tackling it piece by piece. This approach helps make daunting challenges feel more approachable by encouraging iteration and embracing uncertainty.
In turn, a bets mindset allows you to see ideas as a starting point, not a final resolution - a chance that may or may not pay off. Thinking in this way allows you to be more open, able to pivot, and take a chance on another bet when new information comes along.
One way we like to do this is by taking inspiration from the world of improv theatre in order to develop and spark ideas. A simple ‘yes, and…’ statement gives anyone in a team opportunity to positively build on an idea.
We use this technique to encourage divergent thinking and push boundaries. The result is a simple way to spread your bets - by generating multiple ideas to build and test, you aren’t relying on a one hit wonder and you’ve encouraged the team to think iteratively. Alternatively, ‘yes, and…’ is always a fun energiser to get teams warmed up for creative activities.
Gather real feedback, fast
Working in bets drives a sense of speed that enables you to move fast and prevents idea stagnation. Over the years, we’ve seen plenty of examples of products that missed the mark because their timing was off.
Those before their time are often ridiculed (think Google Glass) - seen as wacky and absurd.
Products coming in too late are soon forgotten and seen as lifeless afterthoughts - remember Microsoft Zune? It was launched as an iPod competitor, five years too late.
Taking bets on ideas can allow you to launch new features or products more quickly by gathering real-time feedback from users to inform the next move.
In our projects, we work with our clients to develop lots of ideas that could solve the starting challenge. To prevent getting too attached, we quickly share ideas with consumers to gather real feedback. We might travel to their homes to understand their needs or work together in a co-creation session, building early pre-totypes to bring ideas to life to quickly gauge reactions.
Learning fast, not failing fast
As well as thinking in bets, it’s equally important to bet on each other. As a team, focus on developing a creative culture of cross-functional collaboration where learning is key, ‘failure’ isn’t a scary word, and every individual understands and believes in the mission of the business.
It’s important to learn to trust and empower one another, finding strength in the freedom to explore, experiment and lean on the skills of the team. Together, you can face up to weaknesses and tackle challenges head-on. And, when things go wrong, which they often do, try to embrace it. It’s not about pointing the finger but instead, coming together to discuss what was learnt and what to do differently next time. Retrospectives, post-mortems and project reviews can be amazing tools and should not be overlooked.
At INDUSTRY of Us, we’re not disheartened when ideas don’t succeed immediately. In fact, some of our projects deliberately use ‘sacrificial concepts’. These are designed purely to help facilitate a conversation and allow us to explore the different elements that might best respond to user needs. You could think about these concepts as our ‘starting bets’. And, by collaborating as a team, with consumers and our clients, we can quickly prove or disprove those bets.
In conclusion
Life in a scale-up means working with uncertainty daily. The only way to progress is to flex and evolve. This environment instils an attitude that is lean, smart and flexible - where you think fast and change course as needed.
It isn’t just scale-ups that can benefit from this mindset - we believe that you can too. The concept of working in bets leans into this and offers both the framework and the language to articulate your intention, as an individual or within your team. The result is stronger ideas and better outcomes for your business or consumers.
So, what bet will you take next?
